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RESEARCH

Was the grey market right?

The last GMP quoted before each IPO listed, checked against its actual listing gain.

THE SHORT VERSION

Out of every 100 IPOs, GMP pointed the right way for 67.

Same wayOpposite

GMP and the listing went the same way (both up, or both down) vs opposite ways.

BUT IS THAT IMPRESSIVE?

Most IPOs list up anyway. Someone who ignored GMP and said "it will gain" every time would also look clever.

Using GMP
67 / 100
Blindly saying "gain"
67 / 100

Based on 15 listed IPOs. The last GMP before listing, against the listing-day price.

How close was the number?

Right direction is one thing. The size of the premium is another, and that is where GMP is much less reliable.

A typical caseGMP said +6.3% → listed +18.1% = miss of 11.9 pointsCarver Roboweld · listed 04-Nov-2026
Under 5 points off
20 / 100
5 to 10 points off
27 / 100
10 to 20 points off
27 / 100
20 points or more off
27 / 100

"Points" are percentage points: GMP saying +30% for a stock that lists at +19% is a miss of 11 points. The typical (middle) issue missed by 11.9 points.

Does a bigger GMP mean a better listing?

Past IPOs grouped by how big their last GMP was.

Last GMP wasListed upTypical listing (middle half)
Negative premium
0 issues		0 of 0--
Up to 10%
11 issues		6 of 11−5% to +4% · mid +0%
10% to 25%
2 issues		2 of 2+17% to +17% · mid +28%
25% to 50%
1 issues		1 of 1+81% to +81% · mid +81%
50% and above
1 issues		1 of 1+99% to +99% · mid +99%

A record of issues already listed, not a forecast for any coming one.

See every issue as a dot

Across: last GMP before listing. Up: actual listing gain. Dots on the dashed line listed exactly where GMP said.

-24% -24% 7% 7% 38% 38% 69% 69% 99% 99% Antala Industries: GMP 0.0%, listed −24.0% Vedant Poly Fabs: GMP +1.1%, listed −5.0% Vectras Enprocon: GMP 0.0%, listed +2.9% Maxwell Engineering Solutions Limited: GMP +66.5%, listed +99.5% Johnsoncab Electricals: GMP +4.0%, listed +18.7% HGS (India) Limited: GMP +23.3%, listed +40.0% Bombay Coated and Special Steels Limited: GMP +11.0%, listed +16.5% Ajwa Projects: GMP +0.5%, listed −5.0% Carver Roboweld: GMP +6.3%, listed +18.1% M. K. Sons Fine Jewels Limited: GMP +6.2%, listed +0.0% Wiscon Industries: GMP 0.0%, listed −0.5% SFC Environmental Technologies: GMP +4.5%, listed +29.1% BLS Polymers: GMP +46.7%, listed +81.3% EAAA India Alternatives: GMP +3.2%, listed +3.8% Core4 Engineers: GMP 0.0%, listed −16.0%
Right wayWrong wayGMP = listing

The biggest surprises

Where the last premium and the listing were furthest apart.

BLS PolymersGMP said +46.7% · listed +81.3%34.7 pts Maxwell Engineering Solutions LimitedGMP said +66.5% · listed +99.5%33.0 pts SFC Environmental TechnologiesGMP said +4.5% · listed +29.1%24.6 pts Antala IndustriesGMP said 0.0% · listed −24.0%24.0 pts HGS (India) LimitedGMP said +23.3% · listed +40.0%16.7 pts Core4 EngineersGMP said 0.0% · listed −16.0%16.0 pts

By year

Listing yearIssues gradedGMP right wayListed upMedian missMedian listing gain
20261567%67%11.9 pts+3.8%

Every issue checked

CompanyListedLast GMP %Listing gainMiss (pts)Direction
Antala Industries
SME		11-Nov-20260.0%−24.0%24.0Wrong
Vedant Poly Fabs
SME		09-Nov-2026+1.1%−5.0%6.1Wrong
Vectras Enprocon
SME		06-Nov-20260.0%+2.9%2.9Right
Maxwell Engineering Solutions Limited
SME		06-Nov-2026+66.5%+99.5%33.0Right
Johnsoncab Electricals
SME		06-Nov-2026+4.0%+18.7%14.7Right
HGS (India) Limited
SME		06-Nov-2026+23.3%+40.0%16.7Right
Bombay Coated and Special Steels Limited
Mainboard		05-Nov-2026+11.0%+16.5%5.5Right
Ajwa Projects
SME		04-Nov-2026+0.5%−5.0%5.5Wrong
Carver Roboweld
SME		04-Nov-2026+6.3%+18.1%11.9Right
M. K. Sons Fine Jewels Limited
Mainboard		04-Nov-2026+6.2%+0.0%6.1Right
Wiscon Industries
SME		03-Nov-20260.0%−0.5%0.5Wrong
SFC Environmental Technologies
Mainboard		03-Nov-2026+4.5%+29.1%24.6Right
BLS Polymers
Mainboard		03-Nov-2026+46.7%+81.3%34.7Right
EAAA India Alternatives
Mainboard		02-Nov-2026+3.2%+3.8%0.5Right
Core4 Engineers
SME		30-Oct-20260.0%−16.0%16.0Wrong

THE SHORT VERSION

Out of every 100 IPOs, GMP pointed the right way for 100.

Same wayOpposite

GMP and the listing went the same way (both up, or both down) vs opposite ways.

BUT IS THAT IMPRESSIVE?

Most IPOs list up anyway. Someone who ignored GMP and said "it will gain" every time would also look clever.

Using GMP
100 / 100
Blindly saying "gain"
100 / 100

Based on 5 listed IPOs. The last GMP before listing, against the listing-day price.

How close was the number?

Right direction is one thing. The size of the premium is another, and that is where GMP is much less reliable.

A typical caseGMP said +6.2% → listed +0.0% = miss of 6.1 pointsM. K. Sons Fine Jewels Limited · listed 04-Nov-2026
Under 5 points off
20 / 100
5 to 10 points off
40 / 100
10 to 20 points off
0 / 100
20 points or more off
40 / 100

"Points" are percentage points: GMP saying +30% for a stock that lists at +19% is a miss of 11 points. The typical (middle) issue missed by 6.1 points.

Does a bigger GMP mean a better listing?

Past IPOs grouped by how big their last GMP was.

Last GMP wasListed upTypical listing (middle half)
Negative premium
0 issues		0 of 0--
Up to 10%
3 issues		3 of 3+0% to +4% · mid +4%
10% to 25%
1 issues		1 of 1+17% to +17% · mid +17%
25% to 50%
1 issues		1 of 1+81% to +81% · mid +81%
50% and above
0 issues		0 of 0--

A record of issues already listed, not a forecast for any coming one.

See every issue as a dot

Across: last GMP before listing. Up: actual listing gain. Dots on the dashed line listed exactly where GMP said.

0% 0% 20% 20% 41% 41% 61% 61% 81% 81% Bombay Coated and Special Steels Limited: GMP +11.0%, listed +16.5% M. K. Sons Fine Jewels Limited: GMP +6.2%, listed +0.0% SFC Environmental Technologies: GMP +4.5%, listed +29.1% BLS Polymers: GMP +46.7%, listed +81.3% EAAA India Alternatives: GMP +3.2%, listed +3.8%
Right wayWrong wayGMP = listing

The biggest surprises

Where the last premium and the listing were furthest apart.

BLS PolymersGMP said +46.7% · listed +81.3%34.7 pts SFC Environmental TechnologiesGMP said +4.5% · listed +29.1%24.6 pts M. K. Sons Fine Jewels LimitedGMP said +6.2% · listed +0.0%6.1 pts Bombay Coated and Special Steels LimitedGMP said +11.0% · listed +16.5%5.5 pts EAAA India AlternativesGMP said +3.2% · listed +3.8%0.5 pts

By year

Listing yearIssues gradedGMP right wayListed upMedian missMedian listing gain
20265100%100%6.1 pts+16.5%

Every issue checked

CompanyListedLast GMP %Listing gainMiss (pts)Direction
Bombay Coated and Special Steels Limited
Mainboard		05-Nov-2026+11.0%+16.5%5.5Right
M. K. Sons Fine Jewels Limited
Mainboard		04-Nov-2026+6.2%+0.0%6.1Right
SFC Environmental Technologies
Mainboard		03-Nov-2026+4.5%+29.1%24.6Right
BLS Polymers
Mainboard		03-Nov-2026+46.7%+81.3%34.7Right
EAAA India Alternatives
Mainboard		02-Nov-2026+3.2%+3.8%0.5Right

THE SHORT VERSION

Out of every 100 IPOs, GMP pointed the right way for 50.

Same wayOpposite

GMP and the listing went the same way (both up, or both down) vs opposite ways.

BUT IS THAT IMPRESSIVE?

Most IPOs list up anyway. Someone who ignored GMP and said "it will gain" every time would also look clever.

Using GMP
50 / 100
Blindly saying "gain"
50 / 100

Based on 10 listed IPOs. The last GMP before listing, against the listing-day price.

How close was the number?

Right direction is one thing. The size of the premium is another, and that is where GMP is much less reliable.

A typical caseGMP said +4.0% → listed +18.7% = miss of 14.7 pointsJohnsoncab Electricals · listed 06-Nov-2026
Under 5 points off
20 / 100
5 to 10 points off
20 / 100
10 to 20 points off
40 / 100
20 points or more off
20 / 100

"Points" are percentage points: GMP saying +30% for a stock that lists at +19% is a miss of 11 points. The typical (middle) issue missed by 13.3 points.

Does a bigger GMP mean a better listing?

Past IPOs grouped by how big their last GMP was.

Last GMP wasListed upTypical listing (middle half)
Negative premium
0 issues		0 of 0--
Up to 10%
8 issues		3 of 8−16% to +3% · mid −3%
10% to 25%
1 issues		1 of 1+40% to +40% · mid +40%
25% to 50%
0 issues		0 of 0--
50% and above
1 issues		1 of 1+99% to +99% · mid +99%

A record of issues already listed, not a forecast for any coming one.

See every issue as a dot

Across: last GMP before listing. Up: actual listing gain. Dots on the dashed line listed exactly where GMP said.

-24% -24% 7% 7% 38% 38% 69% 69% 99% 99% Antala Industries: GMP 0.0%, listed −24.0% Vedant Poly Fabs: GMP +1.1%, listed −5.0% Vectras Enprocon: GMP 0.0%, listed +2.9% Maxwell Engineering Solutions Limited: GMP +66.5%, listed +99.5% Johnsoncab Electricals: GMP +4.0%, listed +18.7% HGS (India) Limited: GMP +23.3%, listed +40.0% Ajwa Projects: GMP +0.5%, listed −5.0% Carver Roboweld: GMP +6.3%, listed +18.1% Wiscon Industries: GMP 0.0%, listed −0.5% Core4 Engineers: GMP 0.0%, listed −16.0%
Right wayWrong wayGMP = listing

The biggest surprises

Where the last premium and the listing were furthest apart.

Maxwell Engineering Solutions LimitedGMP said +66.5% · listed +99.5%33.0 pts Antala IndustriesGMP said 0.0% · listed −24.0%24.0 pts HGS (India) LimitedGMP said +23.3% · listed +40.0%16.7 pts Core4 EngineersGMP said 0.0% · listed −16.0%16.0 pts Johnsoncab ElectricalsGMP said +4.0% · listed +18.7%14.7 pts Carver RoboweldGMP said +6.3% · listed +18.1%11.9 pts

By year

Listing yearIssues gradedGMP right wayListed upMedian missMedian listing gain
20261050%50%13.3 pts+1.2%

Every issue checked

CompanyListedLast GMP %Listing gainMiss (pts)Direction
Antala Industries
SME		11-Nov-20260.0%−24.0%24.0Wrong
Vedant Poly Fabs
SME		09-Nov-2026+1.1%−5.0%6.1Wrong
Vectras Enprocon
SME		06-Nov-20260.0%+2.9%2.9Right
Maxwell Engineering Solutions Limited
SME		06-Nov-2026+66.5%+99.5%33.0Right
Johnsoncab Electricals
SME		06-Nov-2026+4.0%+18.7%14.7Right
HGS (India) Limited
SME		06-Nov-2026+23.3%+40.0%16.7Right
Ajwa Projects
SME		04-Nov-2026+0.5%−5.0%5.5Wrong
Carver Roboweld
SME		04-Nov-2026+6.3%+18.1%11.9Right
Wiscon Industries
SME		03-Nov-20260.0%−0.5%0.5Wrong
Core4 Engineers
SME		30-Oct-20260.0%−16.0%16.0Wrong
How this is worked out

For every listed IPO that had a grey market quote, we take the last GMP recorded on or before the listing day and turn it into a % of the upper price band. We compare that with the real listing gain (listing-day price vs issue price). Average gain across these issues: +17.3%, median: +3.8%. The average is pulled up by a few big winners, so the median is closer to what a typical issue did.